How Is Delinquency Risk Predicted?

The Dun & Bradstreet Delinquency Risk Predictor was developed using a sample of approximately 2+M businesses active in the Dun & Bradstreet file, of which 489,000 paid severely delinquent during the 12-month window. Average delinquency rate is 23.5%.

The predictive performance of the Delinquency Risk Predictor is validated annually based on the businesses that paid severely delinquent the previous 12 months (i.e. January 2014 – December 2014).

 

The Marketing Prescreen Indicator is set by the Percentile Ranking 1-100 as follows:

Marketing Prescreen (Delinquency Risk) Delinquency Risk Percentile % of Dun & Bradstreet Marketing File within this Percentile Range Delinquency Rates
Low Risk (L) 31-100 70% 14.4%
Moderate Risk (M) 11-30 20% 31.5%
High Risk 1-10 10% 70%

The Delinquency Risk Predictor models used to set the Low (L), Moderate (M), and High (H)

Data Elements Used in the Delinquency Risk Predictor

The Delinquency Predictor model is built using many attributes from the Dun & Bradstreet global file. A change in any one attribute (such as a new Suit, Lien or Judgment) can impact the Delinquency Predictor score for a business.

Demographic Data
Company Age
Years Under Current Management Control
Industry
Total Employees
History
Subsidiary Indicator
Public Record Data
Total Dollars and the Number of Suits, Judgments & Liens
Number of UCCs
Bankruptcy
 
Trade Data
Percent of Prompt and Slow Pay
Total Dollars and Percent of Trade 31-60
Total Dollars and Percent of Trade 61-90
Total Dollars and Percent of Trade 91+
Current Paydex and Paydex Volatility
Financial Data
Current Net Worth & Change in Net Worth
Working Capital
National Debt Ratings
Financial Ratios for:
  • Liquidity
  • Efficiency
  • Profitability
  • Leverage

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